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Car Alarm's avatar

Also: ask one hundred humans to draw a horse riding an astronaut & I bet about fifty of them would draw an astronaut riding a horse.

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Marcus Seldon's avatar

Interesting post. I have to say I had been very sympathetic to Marcus but this post makes me less so.

Something that leaves me somewhat sympathetic to Marcus’ rhetoric calling these “parlor tricks” and such is the fact that these models, while superficially impressive, have yet to yield much value in real world applications. I realize for PALM and Dalle-2 it’s still super early, but we’ve had GPT-3 for years and as far as I know there have been no major applications of it beyond “hey look how novel it is that an AI wrote part of this article”. Whenever I talk to people who program/use AI in commercial applications, they are much more cynical about its capacities.

Given that, it really does seem like something is missing, and maybe we’re prone to overestimating these models. While many of the specific critiques made by Marcus were wrong, I think he’s getting at that more general intuition.

As a side point, I’m also more skeptical than Erik is on how much progress we’ll get for further scaling, given that we may be running out of the kind of data these models use to train: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6Fpvch8RR29qLEWNH/chinchilla-s-wild-implications

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