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Dawson Eliasen's avatar

I’m skeptical of prediction markets because of this paradox (or at least perceived paradox):

For markets to work, there needs to be enough people participating. But there isn’t much incentive to participate, because we expect the probability to reflect the actual probability of the outcome, and therefore there is no money to be made. In the stock market, there is always incentive to participate, even when the stock is a true reflection of the company value, because the value of the company grows (on average). It is this cooperation of incentives that makes the stock market work, and it doesn’t exist in prediction markets. You are only incentivized to participate if you think the market is wrong. This will either be an extremely small number of (mistaken; therefore eliminating all incentive) people or the market will just not be a reflection of the true probability. I just don’t see the market effects kicking in.

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Mark Dolan's avatar

This is not meant as condescending. It is a possible explanation of the deviation we see in prediction markets. They are quite good at prediction the sports playoffs. A good quarterback or array of pitchers on a given team is not opaque. Prediction markets are a fun analog for perceived understanding.

Many years ago I was doing work in the control and monitoring markets for nuclear power. An intelligent colleague back in the day shared a perspective I have never forgotten and believe it applies. He explained way back then why nuclear generation COULD NEVER SUCCEED broadly. It had NOTHING to do with the approach, it had to do with the degree of broad understanding. The creators and managers of finance and books are stuck in a region of MODEST understanding. It is likely they achieved their lot in life without much of an understanding of mathematics beyond the basics. Supply and demand curves are important but are dumbed down representations of reality. A person can probably be a "star" or "creator" and not have a firm grasp of even calculus. Being able to turn a phrase to effect opinion is a different sort of gift.

My colleague observed that ANYTHING we do societally that is based upon even modest complexity will always be speculative, never understood, easily manipulable, and hence feared. It's broad success will be undermined unless broad education were to change. This is why power generated by fission is doomed with the broader public. People just don't really know what a neutron is. We need Michael Lewis to explain it or some writer of a Newsletter. As for conductivity, while people have some grasp of what temperature and pressure are, I would surmise that <<1% of the population knows what conductivity even means!!! Sometimes when I share the old sop "a pint's a pound the world around" I am amazed that people don't even have a general sense of mass and volume. To expect them to translate their Meta/Twitter feelings (mostly based on who they follow) into meaningful predictions or sensibility about something they are in the dark about can only end badly. Their predictions are hence based on nothing more than the "wisdom of the crowd" -- any one they self-select perhaps by experience or taste in clothing. The closest finance has gotten to madness in the markets was flash trading and derivatives. Only Michael Lewis managed the trick or explaining their underlying basis. Our modern world is finally advancing in more realms exponentially. I fear the average person is not firmly comfortable with logarithms.

All of this is a longhand explanation of why imagining early clicking in a predictions / futures market on ANYTHING OF MODEST SCIENTIFIC COMPLEXITY is like betting green on the roulette wheel or who will win the coin flip at the SuperBowl. It is fun, it is harmless, it is NOT predictive. The more complex the concept, the more settling time required before behavior is sensible to even pay attention to.

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