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Ted Wade's avatar

This is a super argument. I love the connections with Dune (& explanation of why the jihad was "Butlerian") and Ex Machina. Also the ambivalence of the nerdosphere about super AI. And the underlying weakness of reasoning by utility, consequence and expected value. I hope that this essay gets a lot of discussion. Perhaps you know that Thomas Metzinger has tried hard to get the moral hazard of machine suffering into the public eye (if not, search for synthetic phenomenology).

I think you could have paid more attention to the difference between artificial intelligence and artificial consciousness. As far as we know, neither demands the other, and reasons why people are pursuing them tend to differ.

I was taken by Metzinger's self-model theory of consciousness and, nerding all the way, wrote about how that and related ideas might be used to grow a conscious AI. My fictional AI suffers multiple kinds of angst, but I neglected all the casualities of its reinforcement learning forbears (your "monsters"). I wound up thinking that anything able to learn to be an artificial ego would have the drive to continue learning. And that would make the AI and humans each nervous about their existential risks.

But, once it's conscious and has an ongoing life story, how do you decide whether or not it is an abomination? Or isn't it too late for that?

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Geoffrey Miller's avatar

Excellent piece. I'll tweet about it soon.

I would just add: any 'existential upside' to AI will still be there, ripe for plucking, in a hundred or a thousand years. The potential will never go away.

By waiting patiently, pausing all further AI research, and taking the time to fully, deeply assess the real risks of AI, we don't lose any of the upside, and we minimize the downside.

Sure, AI might be able to help current living generations to some degree -- but why not let the AIs start helping our great-great-great grandkids, once we make sure AIs will play nice with our descendants.

In other words, just hit the 'pause' button on AI -- not forever, just for a few centuries.

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