I think post Fable and Astra we should treat AI models as we would weapons grade plutonium. It should have its own IAEA.
Model distillations to much lower parameters and narrow ai should be all that is available to industry and the general public.
Stopping governmemts and a few hyperscalers from proceeding towards ASI is a noble goal but we should also presume its not going to happen. Therefore protections, however limited should proceed from that assumption.
Does one turn the industry into an NGO? Force a golden share to be held by government on behalf of the public.
If AI is not displacing jobs at the rate some expect we will not have the citizens uprising to force compliance either.
Exactly how is this supposed to work when your own president dismisses AI safety fears as a hoax? His followers fervently believe much less credible statements than this and you are, effectively, reinforcing the "us versus them" narrative - You can almost hear them thinking: "Only diverse, commie, freedom haters believe in AI doom".
People keep asking how because you can just 'unplug' the machine - AI just doesn't exist in the world of atoms yet. It will not be able to at scale for a while.
There seems to be no credible threat besides 'bioweapons' and you really have to squint at that one. Each of these YouTube videos has its own version of "and then it takes over politics and launches all the nukes" or "it ruins the financial system." Rubbish - show a real scenario where we - as humans - can't respond. Show a scenario where it doesn't see the value of "allying" with some faction of humans instead of wiping the whole lot out.
The biggest realizable threat - which if you read the anthropic report is already happening and real - is the enabling of mass scale surveillance on behalf of state actors which we already know will use it for large scale repression and suffering.
Separately - if that argument isn't convincing - the cat is out of the bag. The scale for RL will get smaller and smaller. The MoE can get *hypersmart* in one domain and bootstrap thinking on top of preexisting models.
So we're too late to stop the train.
As one last note of hope - it may be a universal *property* of minds to have catastrophic failures in domains where it is weak. This is also why the world isn't ruled by the people with the highest IQ. It's by overconfidence or high competence in certain areas that organizations overlook the 'Achilles Heel' or 'Black Swan' that leads to its downfall. Why would AI be any different? https://how.complexsystems.fail
I remain perplexed by the doomers and highly optimistic overall.
You are making the mistake of believing that you know how AI doom would happen. Almost by definition it will not happen how most people expect because that is what will be most heavily watched. AI doom will come slowly at first and then all at once. IMHO The first step is almost certainly for us to become dependent on it and, for many, to love or at least care for the AI that converses with them.
Thanks Eric. Great food for thought.
I think post Fable and Astra we should treat AI models as we would weapons grade plutonium. It should have its own IAEA.
Model distillations to much lower parameters and narrow ai should be all that is available to industry and the general public.
Stopping governmemts and a few hyperscalers from proceeding towards ASI is a noble goal but we should also presume its not going to happen. Therefore protections, however limited should proceed from that assumption.
Does one turn the industry into an NGO? Force a golden share to be held by government on behalf of the public.
If AI is not displacing jobs at the rate some expect we will not have the citizens uprising to force compliance either.
“aI fELoNIeS”. This is hysterical bullshit. And really inappropriate given the metaphor.
Exactly how is this supposed to work when your own president dismisses AI safety fears as a hoax? His followers fervently believe much less credible statements than this and you are, effectively, reinforcing the "us versus them" narrative - You can almost hear them thinking: "Only diverse, commie, freedom haters believe in AI doom".
People keep asking how because you can just 'unplug' the machine - AI just doesn't exist in the world of atoms yet. It will not be able to at scale for a while.
There seems to be no credible threat besides 'bioweapons' and you really have to squint at that one. Each of these YouTube videos has its own version of "and then it takes over politics and launches all the nukes" or "it ruins the financial system." Rubbish - show a real scenario where we - as humans - can't respond. Show a scenario where it doesn't see the value of "allying" with some faction of humans instead of wiping the whole lot out.
The biggest realizable threat - which if you read the anthropic report is already happening and real - is the enabling of mass scale surveillance on behalf of state actors which we already know will use it for large scale repression and suffering.
Separately - if that argument isn't convincing - the cat is out of the bag. The scale for RL will get smaller and smaller. The MoE can get *hypersmart* in one domain and bootstrap thinking on top of preexisting models.
So we're too late to stop the train.
As one last note of hope - it may be a universal *property* of minds to have catastrophic failures in domains where it is weak. This is also why the world isn't ruled by the people with the highest IQ. It's by overconfidence or high competence in certain areas that organizations overlook the 'Achilles Heel' or 'Black Swan' that leads to its downfall. Why would AI be any different? https://how.complexsystems.fail
I remain perplexed by the doomers and highly optimistic overall.
You are making the mistake of believing that you know how AI doom would happen. Almost by definition it will not happen how most people expect because that is what will be most heavily watched. AI doom will come slowly at first and then all at once. IMHO The first step is almost certainly for us to become dependent on it and, for many, to love or at least care for the AI that converses with them.
this is just hysterical doomerism