I definitely think the Beatles will be remembered in 500 years in much the same "household name" kind of way that Beethoven and Mozart (and Bach) are remembered today. Maybe Elvis, too.
That's a very good point. Although it indicates to me that culture is slowing down, in a certain way, because I have a hard time imagining the same of any contemporary young working artists (but perhaps I am just woefully ignorant)
Erik, it would be an understatement to say I'm really enjoying your work. Serious ask here: we were just discussing AGI today with my EA reading group and I'm wondering if you would like to bring your "Butlerian Jihad" post, in modified form if you prefer, to the EA forum website. Your moral take on this seems fresh and urgent and it is bound to cause discussion (and perhaps a bit of a stir). I'd even offer to do a write-up drawing from your ideas, but it would honestly be cooler to have you there!
Thank you! That's so wonderful to hear, really appreciate it.
As to the EA forum - I generally avoid crossposting my work (as in copy/pasting text, not links), as it interferes with how google ranks things and can even lead to sites being marked as spam. Then there are issues with aesthetics, images, what to use for page breaks. And to be honest I'd rather just get people here. Having published in a lot of places over the years, I've found that total eyeballs is basically completely irrelevant, and that "audience capture" (what a standoffish phrase, let's replace it with "community building") is paramount. Of course, I'm happy to chime in to a write up.
Thanks for this, Erik! I'm just a humble humanities graduate (caveat emptor) who has stumbled on this stuff, but I'm quite game to try my hand at a write-up as soon as my schedule clears up a bit and run a draft by you. It's a pity Substack doesn't seem to offer a PM option. I might try emailing you?
That's a convincing and coherent argument, yet I feel compelled to add something into the other side of the ledger.
"World Historical Figures" have been a recurring feature of humanity (in the sense of 'a feature, not a bug'). Their world-changing impact is not necessarily apparent in their own lifetime (Jesus, Marx) but often is (Alexander, Hitler). They are a testament to the astonishing potential (for good or ill) of the human mind and spirit.
If WHFs were to cease appearing from the present age onwards, this would represent an unprecedented break with an aspect of humanity that we can trace back at least to antiquity. Are we really so convinced of the exceptionalism of our time that we think an unbroken continuum stretching perhaps six thousand years will now be severed?
The shrinking half life of an individual's ability to command our attention continues only until an exceptional individual bucks the trend.
So what does this mean in practice? Quite possibly that a new WHF will come from somewhere completely unexpected (not from politics, from the established religions or from the increasingly-collaborative fields of advanced scientific research). Most likely it will be someone whom we cannot anticipate because they are (to quote Rumsfeld) "an unknown unknown" coming from a place none of us expected.
Notwithstanding that the next WHF will probably completely blindside us all, I'll have a go at suggesting some potential sources of this person (feel free to add):
1) A founder of a completely new belief system (combination of religion and technology) that starts to captivate millions of people and to spread widely across the globe. Our increasingly connected world allows for the possibility that a movement that might have taken centuries to spread in previous eras (eg Christianity) could do so now in just a few years.
2) A completely new economic philosophy. We have played with multiple versions of Marxism, democratic capitalism and social democracy for a very long time. Will a new Marx emerge to completely upend what we understand about how society can (and should) run?
3) AI - will the next WHF be the person who achieves AGI in such a way that humanity is not wiped out in the process?
4) (Gulp) will the next WHF actually be an AI?
5) A scientist who makes contact with extraterrestrial intelligence.
I definitely think the Beatles will be remembered in 500 years in much the same "household name" kind of way that Beethoven and Mozart (and Bach) are remembered today. Maybe Elvis, too.
That's a very good point. Although it indicates to me that culture is slowing down, in a certain way, because I have a hard time imagining the same of any contemporary young working artists (but perhaps I am just woefully ignorant)
Erik, it would be an understatement to say I'm really enjoying your work. Serious ask here: we were just discussing AGI today with my EA reading group and I'm wondering if you would like to bring your "Butlerian Jihad" post, in modified form if you prefer, to the EA forum website. Your moral take on this seems fresh and urgent and it is bound to cause discussion (and perhaps a bit of a stir). I'd even offer to do a write-up drawing from your ideas, but it would honestly be cooler to have you there!
Thank you! That's so wonderful to hear, really appreciate it.
As to the EA forum - I generally avoid crossposting my work (as in copy/pasting text, not links), as it interferes with how google ranks things and can even lead to sites being marked as spam. Then there are issues with aesthetics, images, what to use for page breaks. And to be honest I'd rather just get people here. Having published in a lot of places over the years, I've found that total eyeballs is basically completely irrelevant, and that "audience capture" (what a standoffish phrase, let's replace it with "community building") is paramount. Of course, I'm happy to chime in to a write up.
Thanks for this, Erik! I'm just a humble humanities graduate (caveat emptor) who has stumbled on this stuff, but I'm quite game to try my hand at a write-up as soon as my schedule clears up a bit and run a draft by you. It's a pity Substack doesn't seem to offer a PM option. I might try emailing you?
Sounds interesting - my email is my last name, then first name (all one word) at gmail. It can also be found on my website.
Cautiously optimistic for a future in of near-sighted hedge clipping!
haha hedge clipping sure looks a lot further away from automation than writing!
myopia occupational hazard of both.
Fascinating read!! I’m optimistic
That's a convincing and coherent argument, yet I feel compelled to add something into the other side of the ledger.
"World Historical Figures" have been a recurring feature of humanity (in the sense of 'a feature, not a bug'). Their world-changing impact is not necessarily apparent in their own lifetime (Jesus, Marx) but often is (Alexander, Hitler). They are a testament to the astonishing potential (for good or ill) of the human mind and spirit.
If WHFs were to cease appearing from the present age onwards, this would represent an unprecedented break with an aspect of humanity that we can trace back at least to antiquity. Are we really so convinced of the exceptionalism of our time that we think an unbroken continuum stretching perhaps six thousand years will now be severed?
The shrinking half life of an individual's ability to command our attention continues only until an exceptional individual bucks the trend.
So what does this mean in practice? Quite possibly that a new WHF will come from somewhere completely unexpected (not from politics, from the established religions or from the increasingly-collaborative fields of advanced scientific research). Most likely it will be someone whom we cannot anticipate because they are (to quote Rumsfeld) "an unknown unknown" coming from a place none of us expected.
Notwithstanding that the next WHF will probably completely blindside us all, I'll have a go at suggesting some potential sources of this person (feel free to add):
1) A founder of a completely new belief system (combination of religion and technology) that starts to captivate millions of people and to spread widely across the globe. Our increasingly connected world allows for the possibility that a movement that might have taken centuries to spread in previous eras (eg Christianity) could do so now in just a few years.
2) A completely new economic philosophy. We have played with multiple versions of Marxism, democratic capitalism and social democracy for a very long time. Will a new Marx emerge to completely upend what we understand about how society can (and should) run?
3) AI - will the next WHF be the person who achieves AGI in such a way that humanity is not wiped out in the process?
4) (Gulp) will the next WHF actually be an AI?
5) A scientist who makes contact with extraterrestrial intelligence.
The idea that the next WHF is an AI is pretty interesting. I realized I forgot to add Satoshi Nakamoto to the list of possibly-relevant individuals.
Your comment is discussed here - https://www.secretorum.life/p/how-to-become-a-world-historical
Your comment is discussed here - https://www.secretorum.life/p/how-to-become-a-world-historical