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In advance comments for this have been restricted to paid subscribers only. Plenty of "UFOs are aliens" believers are reasonable people, but there is a fervent diehard group who exist online who are not, and I'd like to avoid excess hate.

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The best argument for why ufos are not real aliens is that they are not at all common in non-western countries. I have never heard about ufos is the middle east, east asia or Africa. Often cultures in these places would look positively on mystical unexplained phenomena. But no, most UFO footage is from the US and Europe...

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So like...do you think we should just ignore UAP stuff? Imo, unexplained phenomena shouldn't be ignored just cause some people think it's aliens and some other people are embarrassed for them. And you still need evidence for mundane explanations, which I don't see presented here either.

If your point is just that most JOURNALISTS are now creduless beyond usefulness, I agree with you. If your point is that the propoganda machine is trying to distract people with alien stories, I agree with you. But your point seems to be "we need more kneejerk skepticism about aliens in the general population" and I am not convinced.

The mundane explanation could just as easily be "UAP stories camoflage military technology/activity" which requires more attention being paid to determine, not less.

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Lol the last two lines... love it.

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Jun 9, 2023Liked by Erik Hoel

I find accounts of paranormal experiences, including “close encounters” or alien abductions, very entertaining to think about, but my credence in them is quite low. But if you don’t want to just say people are making them all up but the experience does not tell us much about external reality, you have to believe that the human brain is capable of wandering into perceptual states that take us far afield from the regularly reliable way we perceive and interact with the world. And from what I can tell, while high stress, trauma, psychosis, or drug use can be associated with some of these things, some cases seem to be just a “normal” brain doing something wild for no obvious reason. That’s hard to accept. Even the simplest visual illusions that get perceived as some far-off UFO pierce our belief in perceptual correspondence to reality to be deeply uncomfortable. For one, it’s no surprise that the people most into these topics have usually experienced some medium-to-high strangeness at some point (Skinwalker Ranch for example) and desperately need to find a reason for what they experienced. And all the rest of us still find it hard to be comfortable with “hey there’s some weird lights in the sky, probably our eyes and brains are just not well equipped to process what we’re seeing” said with a shrug. I don’t fully discount the possibility of unexplained phenomena turning out to be stranger than we think, but the first culprit I would turn to as stranger than we think is our brains, as hard as that is to accept.

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Jun 9, 2023Liked by Erik Hoel

Thanks for the post, Erik!

I have a somewhat different view of the situation. I agree that some people are jumping to conclusions too soon -- until we have verified physical evidence of the claims that David Grusch is making, we can't really draw any strong conclusions. I also agree with the general point, even if I disagree in details, that the UAP community is just ***filled*** with grifters and/or people who make wild claims based on mild evidence, Corbell being the prime example. The waters are very muddy.

But I also feel like you're downplaying the significance of this. I think the alternative to "what this guy is saying is true and world changing" is not "the media is just trying to clickgrab, there's nothing to pay attention to here", but "if what he's saying isn't true, a part of the government is (willingly or unwillingly, knowingly or unknowingly) participating in a mis/disinformation campaign that is becoming more and more influential by the day". The reasons are David Grusch's credentials, who is backing him, and the effect his words have already had.

I don't have time to write out the argument in more details right now, but I'd happily do if anyone is interested. For now, I'll just leave this article from The Hill -- https://thehill.com/opinion/4038159-stunning-ufo-crash-retrieval-allegations-deemed-credible-urgent/ -- that outlines a lot of what I'd say.

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I love that you debunked ufos 🤣

As it turns out, I know the current owner of Skinwalker Ranch (Bigelow sold it to Brandon Fugal in 2016) and once met Travis Taylor and the whole Skinwalker Ranch crew for a story on what’s really going on down there: https://www.utahbusiness.com/why-a-millionaire-real-estate-mogul-bought-skinwalker-ranch/

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Jun 9, 2023Liked by Erik Hoel

Just can't resist citing Hüsker Dü: "Telling the same old story to everyone that she knows, she's just sitting in her room with books about UFOs". Beautiful song.

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I have a cousin who was a radio operator in the USAF. She recounts stories of listening to pilots talking about extremely high speed spacecraft.. Reporting that what they saw didn't seem possible. They were in awe at the maneuverability. She's a practical woman who went to be run a veterinarian clinic. Bottom line, I think it's possible. I also don't think we're going to see one land. It they're up there and have very high tech they've already observed the earth and figured it wasn't a good idea to land on this crazy planet with the violence, wars and now climate change.By the way., she never sold or told what she'd heard first hand and seen to the press.

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